Predictive Value in Rate of Change?

[cbdheartman]

Does anyone know if there are any medical journal articles that discuss the predictive value of the annual rate of change of aneurysm size? That is, is there literature that says a "stable" aneurysm is less likely to dissect or rupture and an aneurysm that is changing at x-rate is more likely to dissect or rupture?

 

[Ross]

Dude what does it take to convince you? Tell ya what, just wait until it blows then you'll know. Sorry for the sarcasm, but I mean really.

 

[cbdheartman]

Ross, no worries. I probably should explain myself. I am a nerd and have a track of my mind that is finding all of this intellectually fascinating. I was talking to my father-in-law who is a doctor last night and he was bringing up my next appointment and the possibility that my aneurysm has been "stable" for years and whether that would change things. I wasn't buying it, but I just was curious as to whether there was even any data to support such an approach. I haven't see any. But I was curious. So involved in all of this is just a desire to know information which coexists with my actual situation.

 

[ALCapshaw2]

cbd -

AMEN to what Ross said.

You seem to be CONSUMED by thoughts and worry over your aneurism. That in itself should be a sign that it would be Much Better to Just Get It FIXED and get on with living a NORMAL life.

When do you find time to think about Work, Family, Fun, and just plain Living?

As many of us have said MANY TIMES,
What is the Benefit to Waiting? I see NONE.
You have BAV and an Aortic Aneurism.
The ONLY KNOWN way to Fix those conditions is Surgery.
What are you waiting for?

(Have you designated someone to tell us When your Aneurism disects or ruptures? We'd all like to know "the rest of the story" if/when it happens.)

'AL Capshaw'

 

[Ross]

I'm sure there is something out there that will support that idea, but I'm equally sure that if you look long enough, you'll find something completely contrary to the first. That's just how it is with this stuff and another reason why I don't trust any of the studies or stats.

My question is, Do the doctors have an acceptable loss statistic that they refer too?

 

[Tom F.]

My friend, I have read your other posts, and it seems to me that you are looking for hard scientific data, hard numbers if you will, to make all of this make sense in a way that you can rest yourself knowing that you have found the final answer to this all. An answer that clearly breaks down between black and white, where there is no uncertainty, no room for debate or discusion, where all relevant facts are known.

The problem is that such certainty does not exist in our little world. That which is stable today, and yesterday, and last year and the year before can blow like a Texas gusher tomorrow. I agree with Ross that whatever you find in the literature will be challenged by something you find someplace else. It is frustrating, but it is reality.

Please, take a listen, get your surgery done.

 

[MissMelis]

I share your nerdiness to a degree, and have read studies upon studies and none have offered me any comfort whatsoever. In fact, they've probably made me more nervous.

The fact is, these things have a mind of their own and behave differently in every single person. There is NO way of predicting what will happen to you based on what happened to these 500 other people.

Fascinating, yes. But I'd rather read about it than have it happening to me, or you, or any of us. I would love to just have this fixed and not have to think about this anymore.
I know that's the way you're leaning, so I hope you fall (or get pushed) right into that pool of certainty

Melissa

 

[Ross]

Mind you, here I sit with a "Baby Abdominal Aneurysm at 3.6" And all I want is to have it fixed NOW NOW NOW.

 

[Lynlw]

I agree with what everyone has said, and echo Al's thoughts about how having this is affecting YOU and I really can't see you reaching peace of any sort until you have surgery. It might be part of your personality and why you decided to be a lawyer, the whole argueing both sides of every point and I mean that in a kind way. Other persons could be at peace when their surgeon said wait and put it out of their mind and get on with life, but I know as long as you have this you will be thinking about it and driving yourself nuts with what ifs.
With all that said, the closest article to what you are asking about I know off the top of my head is the Yale article. But the thing is even LOW risk for anything related to this aneuysm is still a risk, somebody will be the person that ruptures at even a low risks, you never know. Kind of like playing russian roulette with 1 bullet in a chamber, has a much lower risk of blowing your brains out than a gun with a full chamber, but would you take that chance? anyway here is the article, I know the bsa article you posted mentioned it, so you might have read it already. http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2605304 and I'll quote 2 paragraphs from it
"Aortic dissection is one of the most catastrophic acute natural events that can befall a human being. The pain of this disorder is often described by those affected as the most severe pain imaginable, eclipsing that of childbirth and kidney stones. It is interesting that nature perceives the pain of dissection as a “splitting” or “tearing” quality, very much apropos of the pathologic process itself. Because acute aortic dissection often masquerades as a heart attack, its true incidence is often underestimated. If a middle-aged or elderly person arrives in the emergency room with acute onset of chest pain, clutches his chest, and promptly dies, he is likely to be signed out as having experienced a “myocardial infarction.” In actual fact, many such presentations represent undiagnosed aortic dissections.
It takes autopsy series to document the true incidence of acute aortic dissection. Such series have indicated that aortic dissection is actually the most common lethal condition affecting the human aorta, more common than the better-appreciated ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

 

[Maryka]

How did the visit to Hopkins go?

How did the visit to Hopkins go?

We are trying to be patient here. I hope you get something concrete to think about from Hopkins!