I had my BAV aortic regurgitation diagnosis at 21 after a bad round of palptiations. Back then i allready had a large LV, a 55% Ef and moderate-severe regurgitation. I was told AVR is close, maybe one-two years max.
I got to a regular echo exam every 6 months or so and the numbers stayed just about the same. Year after year.
I am 37 now, progressed to anual MRI scans as they are the gold standard for this and still numbers are the same. No change. Sometimes they say moderate, sometimes they say moderate-severe...
All theese years i did all i wanted to. I am prone to anxiety so being too carefull makes me really anxious. I was and still am a heavy smoker, did a lot of sports, had huge amounts of stress and still no progression ,no aneurysm (i am literally a giant and my aorta is just 4.2)
Being a MD, i know i am not the regular BAV patient and this DOES progress but to answer to the OP question - you just dont know
![Smile :) :)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
I was told "surgery next year" and 16 had passed since then without surgery.
Even now, everytime i see my surgeon he wants to change it, i say " let's wait for the next MRI. I will do it, if there is at least 5% change in any parameter". he laughs and says " then i'll see you next year. But stop smoking!!"
Bottom line - outside of statistics is just down to each and every person out there and their personal genetics, life choices and luck. You live you life and do your regular check-ups. When the time will come, you will do it and that's that.