This data set would be all over the board. I had regurgitation. I also had stenosis. I was 17 for my first. One might be able to find a bell curve in the data set, but I don’t know how useful this would be to make any kind of prediction for individuals.
Murmer picked up in 2008 but after an echo I was never told I had a bicuspid valve, next time at the doctors was 2011 where I was informed about the bicuspid valve and I was told its nothing to worry about just have it checked in 10 years time.
Only googled it a few years later and found out it was actually not a good thing to have.
I suspected it was failing maybe 6 months to a year before I finally went to the doctors ( short of breath, dizzy spells, afib, jaw pain which I only found out after avr that was a sympton) in July 2015 which started the ball rolling and had it replaced in November of that year when I was 38.
I'm BAV, age 53 and have not needed surgery yet. On some echos they pick up mild or trace regurgitation on either my mitral or aortic valve, but sometimes they don't. The main issue for me is the stenosis, which is near the moderate/severe threshold at this point. It is interesting that my regurgitation will sometimes be mild and then the next echo it will come back negative. I'm sure it is common for it to get progressively worse, just wonder if others find that sometimes it moves in the better direction.
I was told I had a murmur in my late 20s and tracked for 40 years. At some point they started saying it was "probable" or "possible" bicuspid. Even after CTs/MRIs and always after most echos. Had surgery last March when I was 67. Guess what? It wasn't bicuspid at all...but unicuspid!
There are a variety of circumstances leading to AVR and sometimes surprises found only during surgery...
I was 46 in March 2006 when I suddenly developed significant symptoms. I had no idea what the cause was. After a few weeks of ignoring the symptoms, my wife told me to make an appointment to find out what was going on. I went to my primary care physician who diagnosed a significant murmur. Then had an echo done, met with cardiologist, and was told I had a BAV with significant aortic regurgitation. He (and several other people) said I probably had been feeling bad for a long time. I insisted, no that was not the case. Symptoms literally started upon waking up one day in the middle of March.
I asked how long I could go without surgery before it would permanently damage my heart. He could not predict but estimated I would not live to see the end of decade if left untreated. Three weeks after diagnosis, I had AVR. The first time I saw the surgeon and cardiologist after surgery, they both told me I really needed to get this done.
It was a rare situation.
There was a cord attached to the middle of the defective leaflet. The other end had apparently been connected somewhere inside my heart. The heart side of the cord ruptured causing the valve to prolapse and the sudden onset of symptoms.
So in summary, At age 46, my valve was replaced 6 weeks from onset of symptoms and 3 weeks from diagnosis.