Yes, your chance this year is still 2% but your chance of having had a bleeding event over the last 32 years was around 48%. Essentially a coin flip and you did well.As far as stats, they aren’t cumulative like that. I’ve been event free for 32 years on warfarin. There is still a 2% chance this year of an event just like there was the first year I received my valve. But that’s a 2% chance among all patients, not me individually.
Over the next 32 years, your chance of having a bleeding event is also 48%. I wish you luck once again on that coin flip.
Note: 1-(probability of not having an event ^32) is 48%
No, Dick's chance of encountering a bleeding event over 55 years was around 67%, not 110%.
Note: The percentage will never go over 100% (and it's not linear). Look up Limit Theory in any first year Calculus book for why this is.
Again, no. See above.Think if it this way. X% of people die in car accidents annually. Now that you’ve been driving 30 plus years, do you feel like any time now you’re going to die when you get in a car?
Superman, you're a reasonable guy, can you not see that this is a perfect example of why it's not a good idea for you guys to give out medical advice on this forum?
What you believed and offered as fact actually isn't fact.
What other "facts" are you guys giving out that aren't facts either? And how would you know?
Don't you think telling this guy that his chance of a bleeding event (significant or not) over a 30 year period is 2% when in fact the probability is actually 45% could make a difference in his decision making?
Could the probability of bleeding events over time and the consequences for their patients actually be a reason why a surgeon's preference may lean towards tissue and why the industry is trying to develop longer lasting tissue valves or mechanical valves that don't require warfarin?
Could it be possible that medical decisions by cardiac surgeons who have devoted their lives to extending the lives of people like us are not just based on some "surgeons trying to get repeat customers/greedy valve maker's churning profits, etc." conspiracy theory but on actual information/knowledge that they have and that you (and dare I say Pellicle) don't?